The government has unveiled a sweeping $55 billion blueprint to overhaul its power sector over the next decade, betting on hydropower, nuclear and renewables to meet soaring electricity demand while phasing out its dirtiest fuels and reducing reliance on costly imports.
The Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2025-35, released by the Independent System & Market Operator and submitted to regulator NEPRA for approval, lays out an ambitious transition. By 2035, 61 per cent of electricity is expected to come from renewable sources — led by hydropower at 34pc, solar at 18pc and wind at 8pc. Bagasse, a sugarcane byproduct, will provide 1pc. The remaining 39pc will come from conventional thermal fuels, with furnace oil retired entirely.
Officials project power demand will rise at an average of 4.4pc a year. Peak load is forecast to climb from about 27,000 megawatts in 2024 to more than 43,000 megawatts by 2035. Total capacity will expand to nearly 62,880 megawatts by then.
To meet this surge, the government is banking on a pipeline of large dams, solar parks, wind corridors and new nuclear plants. The plan also emphasizes demand-side management to raise Pakistan’s weak load factor from 58% toward 70%, easing pressure on the grid.
About 8,120 megawatts are expected to come from net-metered rooftop systems, while battery storage will be introduced to stabilize renewable supply. The roadmap also envisions retirement of inefficient thermal plants.
A critical component is long-delayed grid integration for Karachi. The IGCEP calls for a new 500-kilovolt transmission link to deliver up to 2,050 megawatts from the national grid into K-Electric’s network by 2028. The move would end K-Electric’s historic isolation and allow renewable power generated in Sindh and Balochistan to reach the country’s commercial hub.
Pakistan’s energy sector is weighed down by circular debt, delays in project completion, and policy reversals that have undermined investor confidence. Experts say without structural reforms in governance, pricing and grid management, the IGCEP could face the same fate as earlier unfulfilled energy roadmaps. Pakistan’s reliance on imported coal, oil and LNG has left it vulnerable to global price shocks, swelling tariffs and periodic blackouts.
