US Light Vehicle Sales Surge 8.5% YoY in November
US Light Vehicle (LV) sales experienced an 8.5% year-on-year (YoY) growth in November, reaching 1.22 million units, preliminary estimates reveal. The YoY surge, attributed to weak sales a year prior, fell slightly below expectations, although the selling rate remained consistent with recent months.
Despite the improvement in inventory, customers seem to require higher incentives, marking a departure from the trend observed since the onset of the chip shortage.
GlobalData reports total US Light Vehicle sales of 1.22 million units in November, resulting in an annualized selling rate of 15.4 million units/year, down from 15.6 million units/year in October. The daily selling rate for November was estimated at 48.9k units/day, compared to 48.2k units/day in October. Thanksgiving and Black Friday sales, though not as robust as anticipated, contributed to retail sales of around 1.03 million units, with fleet sales comprising roughly 15.6% of total sales at approximately 191k units.
David Oakley, Manager, Americas Sales Forecasts, GlobalData, noted: “With the UAW strikes over, the industry could focus on more typical matters of LV demand and the extent to which Thanksgiving sales would spur the market, against the backdrop of many households feeling squeezed and interest rates remaining high. In the end, sales grew by 8.5% YoY, but there was a feeling that results could have been better. While consumers still appear willing to spend, many are remaining more cost-conscious, and this is forcing the industry to begin to offer higher incentives, even if discounting remains well below historical averages for now. In addition, several models that were directly impacted by the UAW strikes were still suffering from low inventory in November, and that appeared to restrict their sales. Had these models delivered more typical volumes, the overall market’s performance would have looked more robust”.
The year-to-date (YTD) sales market is meeting or exceeding expectations, with 2023 poised to achieve 15.4 million units, a 12% increase from 2022. With demand stability and reduced supply constraints, the 2024 forecast has been adjusted to 16.1 million units.
The YTD daily selling rate stands at 50.2k, up from 44.6k last year, despite October and November falling below the YTD average. Inventory levels remain adequate at an industry level, with a projected days’ supply of 45 days and an inventory volume of 2.25 million units.
At an OEM level, Toyota Group narrowly outsold General Motors for the second consecutive month, both holding a market share of 16.2%. Ford Group, ranking third, achieved 140k units with a market share of 11.4%, the lowest since August 2021. Toyota led at a brand level with 167k units, while the Toyota RAV4 claimed the top-selling model for the second month in a row.
Jeff Schuster, Vice President Research and Analysis, Automotive, highlighted the market’s stability, predicting a positive setup for 2024 amid challenges in the overall economy and pricing trends. The transition to electrification remains a focal point for traditional OEMs.
On the global front, October marked the fifth consecutive month above 90 million units in LV sales, with a selling rate of 94 million units and a 10.7% increase from October 2022. November is expected to continue the trend, setting the stage for a strong year-end. The global LV sales forecast for 2023 has been revised upward to 89.2 million units, a 10.0% increase from 2022, primarily driven by China’s wholesale market strength. GlobalData plans to shift reporting and forecasting to domestic sales in China, reducing the market by 3.7 million units. The current 2023 forecast remains at 92.3 million units.
