Unpacking Pakistan’s Deportation Policy: Fueling Afghan “Poppy” Surge and Straining Relations?
The United Nations has reported a 95 percent drop in opium poppy production in Afghanistan, but concerns are growing over Pakistan’s deportation policy targeting illegal Afghan migrants could contribute to a spike in poppy cultivation. This raised questions regarding its impact on the war-torn Afghan economy and the illicit trade of this substance.
Simultaneously, the Afghan deportation policy has strained Pak-Afghan relations. A plethora of critical messages are coming from the Taliban’s senior leadership recently. While Pakistani authorities say that the policy was planned months ago as Pakistan wanted to lessen the burden of illegal migrants on the struggling economy. Presently, Pakistan hosts around 4.4 million Afghan refugees, with 1.7 million illegal residents as they lack valid documents.
Poppy plants are cultivated in Afghanistan which is then used to produce opium. Afghanistan produces around 80 percent of the world’s opium and other related substances. Notably, “Afghanistan’s drug trade” is not exactly quantified, but it is estimated in multi-billion dollars.
Abrupt Deportation Straining Pak-Afghan Ties
Official managing the deportation process of Illegal migrants back to Afghanistan said, “Taliban are discontent with current deportation efforts. This could potentially strain the diplomatic relations between the two countries, however, Pakistani authorities and the Taliban are in contact.
Recently, Taliban leaders, including the interim prime minister, defense and interior minister have strongly criticized Pakistan for deporting thousands of Afghans.
Afghan Interior Minister Sirjudin Haqqani in a recent video message has asked Pakistan, “Don’t punish Afghan refugees for issues with the Kabul administration.” Taliban think that Pakistan might be using deportation to pressure the Kabul administration to act against the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) having sanctuary in Afghanistan and carrying out attacks in Pakistan.
Nevertheless, Islamabad has negated this notion, explaining the decision was taken over six months ago to lessen the burden of the illegal migrants on the struggling Pakistani economy. The official said, “Afghans who have Afghan Citizenship Card (ACC) or Proof of Residence (POR), nobody is bothering them.
UN Reports 95% Fall in Poppy Production
The United Nations reports a 95 percent drop in opium poppy production in Afghanistan following the Taliban’s ban on cultivation in April 2022. In its latest report, the agency said that throughout Afghanistan, poppy cultivation areas declined. It dropped to 10,800 hectares in 2023 from 233,000 hectares in 2022. Especially, it dropped in provinces where opium poppy was illicitly cultivated for many years.
“In 2023 opium poppy cultivation and opium production dramatically declined after the ban prohibiting “Poppy Cultivation and All types of Narcotics” was announced by the de-facto authorities (DfA) in April 2022”, states the report.
Consequently, this has reduced the supply of opium and the export quality heroin coming out of the 2023 harvest. Opium production saw a similar 95 percent decline from 6,200 tons produced in 2022 to 333 tons in 2023. The total 2023 opium harvest could be converted into 24-38 tons of heroin of export quality (50 – 70 percent purity). In 2022 that amount was 350-580 tons.
Taliban “War on Drugs in Afghanistan” May Backfire
Since the Taliban seized power in August 2021, hundreds and thousands of Afghans fled to Pakistan. They sought refuge to escape possible devastating economic and humanitarian crises, as well as personal reprisals by militant groups.
Now, the Pakistani authorities asking these illegal Afghan migrants to leave Pakistan. The deportation and voluntary return to Afghanistan have already started. However, experts warn that this move could burden the war-ravaged Afghan economy, offering few job opportunities.
In the midst of the “Economic Challenge”, the Taliban’s efforts to control drugs may also be affected. This will ultimately lead to a resurgence in poppy cultivation, despite its illegality, as it sole cash crop for their subsistence. The record-high price of opium could also incentivize increased cultivation.
Farmers’ Income Plummets by 92%
The report noted that the sharp cut in opium production has left many rural Afghans economically vulnerable as it often constituted a major portion of their incomes. By August 2023, the farm-gate price of the product reached $408 per kilogram, compared to a consistently low price when the Taliban were not in power.
With both low production and higher prices, farmers’ income from selling their 2023 opium harvest declined over 92 percent, dropping to $110 million from $1.36 billion in 2022.
“Over the coming months Afghanistan is in dire need of strong investment in sustainable livelihoods to provide Afghan farmers with opportunities away from opium,” Ghada Waly, the executive director of UNODC, said in a statement. “This presents a real opportunity to build towards long-term results against the illicit opium market and the damage it causes both locally and globally.”
